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PhD Defence

20 June 2022

2022_PhD_defence_Kapsambelis
Dorothée Kapsambelis will defend her PhD entitled "Modelling Extreme Climate Events On The Crop Productions In 2050. Application For The Economic Risk Management" on July 12, 2022 at 2:30 pm (Institut Agro Rennes-Angers, Rennes campus, Amphi Rieffel).

Dorothée Kapsambelis will defend her PhD in front of the following jury:

  • Aude Ridier (Institut Agro Rennes-Angers, UMR SMART), president of the jury
  • Jean-Christophe Calvet (Météo-France, Université de Toulouse, CNRM), referee
  • Geoffroy Enjolras (Grenoble IAE, CERAG), referee
  • Nina Graveline (INRAE, UMR Innovation), examinator
  • Jean Cordier (Institut Agro Rennes-Angers, UMR SMART), supervisor
  • David Moncoulon (CCR, Département R&D Modélisation), co-supervisor

Abstract

This PhD dissertation focuses on the impact of the past and future extreme climatic events in metropolitan France on the winter cereals and grassland yield losses. The results are applied to risk management systems. The methodology is based on the design of an impact model of extreme droughts and excess of water on the yield losses. To this end, a new climatic index has been developed. This index characterizes these extreme events and it is correlated to the departmental yield losses on the historical period. The ARPEGE-Climat Model on the RCP 8.5 from IPCC has been used to study the consequences of these climate risks in 2050 all things being equal. The results show the significant impact of the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme droughts in 2050. A downscaling method to farm level shows that the impact differs according to the different crops. The risk is “horizontal” for the cereals (yield losses are moderate and a large number of farmers is impacted). For grassland, the risk is “horizontal” and “vertical” in 2050: yield losses are important and a large number of farmers is impacted. The risk management systems have to be adapted to these different risk profiles. In this way, the results are applied to the economic losses sustained by the different risk management actors (farmers, insurers, State) with possible avenues of reflection on the future public policies.